Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Sell EUR/USD : Failed Symmetrical Triangle & Broken Support Area


The EUR/USD seemed to move in a side way horizontally till it broke the support area (1.2817-1.2804) downwards confirming the daily downtrend & the weekly downtrend also (see the weekly chart).

The support area were represented by the low of September 30, 2012 & the high of September 07, 2012.

The next support area that will face the declining of the EUR/USD will be (1.2747-1.27245) represented by the high of June 17, 2012 & the Mid price ((high+low)/2) of September 7, 2012.

My opinion: sell EUR/USD , Target at 1.2747-1.2724.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

EUR/USD October 17, 2012 : Bullish Symmetrical Triangle Formation



The Symmetrical triangle formation pattern is a continuation pattern, that's mean the trend will continue in the same direction.
But how can i recognize the symmetrical triangle ? let's see .....
In this case the EUR/USD chart is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows but something strange (unusual) happened was that the lower high, so there were several possibilities:
1- The lower high followed by lower low, means the end of the daily scale uptrend and the beginning of the daily scale downtrend.
2- The lower high followed by higher low "like this case" means the conflict between the buying power and the selling pressure, i prefer to call it "the equality" between both the buyers and the sellers.

Then at this case "No.2" join the high with the lower high & join the low with the higher low, the output will be the triangle ribs which contains the price within it.

 If the price action break the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle upwards "and this is the most probably" as the trend is up and the pattern is continuation, so buy or wait the declining of the price to retest the upper boundary of the triangle as a support then buy.

The target will be the vertical base price distance of the triangle, calculate it and then add it to the price at the breakthrough point of the upper boundary.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

September 8, 2012 The EUR break the upper boundary of the down trend channel




At last, What we were waiting for the last three months were achieved yesterday.

The EUR/USD price break the upper barrier of the down trend channel Announcing the end of the down trend and the possibility of either the sideways or an uptrend.

If . . . 
The macd indicator move near or very close to its zero line . . .
The Trix indicator also move near or very close to its zero line . . .
The ADX indicator is declining or move near or most likely below its 20 line . . .
The 20 days simple moving average is moving horizontal . . .

So . . . the trend probably is a sideways , in this case i would recommend to use the [ Stochastic oscillator (9.5,3) over bought over sold strategy with the crossing strategy ] and the Bollinger Bands to gain profits.

Otherwise . . . You know what to do in an uptrend : buy and hold till the indications of weakness begin to appear.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

EUR/USD May 23, 2012 Down Trend Channel





A down trend line represents the upper boundary of a down trend channel appears easily on both the daily and the weekly  EUR/USD chart.

The upper boundary trend line formed by joining the highs of the three candlesticks of  the following days trading:

1- August 29, 2011 with high value 1.45480.

2- October 27, 2011 with high value 1.42470.

3- May 1st, 2012 with high value 1.32830.

The lower boundary parallel line is formed by joining the lows of the two candlesticks of the following days trading:

1- October 4, 2011 with low value 1.31440.

2- January 1st, 2012 with low value 1.26230.

The break of the upper boundary upwards will be a buying opportunity , and will be more confirmed if the price retest the trend line as a support after breaking it upwards.

But the more likely scenario is that the price action will reach the lower boundary , cause their is no bullish indication appears to me , technically of course. 

Thursday, May 17, 2012

EUR/USD May 17, 2012 : Target at 1.25

After descending triangle formation , the price break down the lower boundary , target for buying at 1.25 , which is by the way an historical support