Friday, October 13, 2017

Post:0026 EUR / USD , October 13th 2017

EUR/USD Analysis

I admit that Fiber chart at this time is confusing, ok I was distracted for some time & I couldn't predict the next move, & This is due to conflicting signals.

From the Bullish side:
1- There is a daily & weekly uptrend starting from May 2017.
2- Monthly & quarterly Bullish reversal (breakthrough the 1.1714 upwards & close above it which turned into support now) starting  from July 2017.
3- Major support area at 1.16 - 1.1616
4- MACD indicator forming bullish cross signal on the Quarterly time frame, also its Histogram forming a +ve divergence on the same time scale.

& From the other Bearish side:
1- Price now is in the middle of a an upward correction inside a major downtrend (yearly & quarterly frames) & a major downside trend line was applied and confirmed by connecting three major peaks (July 2008, May 2011 & May 2014), this line act as a very reliable resistance (Prices are still under this line).
2- Major resistance area at 1.2092.
3- A Bulk of reliable technical indicators showed a very strong sell signals at the same time (September-October 2017) on the weekly time frame.

After analysis conflict data, I go with the Bearish Side, but why?

1- the daily & weekly uptrend seems to be over (change in slope & momentum then start seeing lower high lower low swings).
2- Monthly & quarterly Bullish reversal (1.1714 breakthrough) also met with Monthly & quarterly resistance (1.2092) that turned the move to what it looks like a slip or more likely failed reversal.
3- In order of timing; the shorter-term approach time frame signals occur faster & before the longer-term approach time frames, so as for this case here, the bearish weekly signals are more important right now than the bullish quarterly signals because this is what will occur first (matter of timing).

1st Support: 1.1714
2nd Support: 1.16690
3rd Support: 1.1616

resistance: 1.19100

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